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          重读三国,蜀汉为何在两个月内就亡国?

          作者:未知来源:冷热军事史发表于:2017-02-07 00:32:35阅读:
          诸葛亮七年内五次伐魏,未竟其功,兵疲民困。诸葛亮死后,蒋琬和费祎基本停止大规模战争,休士养民。不过,姜维掌权后,又开始大举北伐。


          蒋琬(?-246年)

          姜维主动伐魏共有十一次之多。其中大胜一次 , 小胜三次,不分胜负五次,大败一次 , 小败一次 。考虑到蜀魏国力对比,这个战绩已算骄人,而且前几次北伐,姜维尚未完全掌握军权,出征军队不过万人。可是,姜维最后一次北伐后仅一年,蜀国就被曹魏灭亡,为何形势会急转直下?这要从蜀国的汉中郡说起。

          ▍汉中地理位置极其重要,易守难攻

          位于关中平原南部和巴蜀北部之间的汉中,西起阳平关(今陕西省勉县),东到湖北荆山,北有秦岭,南有巴山,地势险峻,群山环绕、峡谷纵横,自古就是易守难攻、兵家必争之地。

          214年刘备刚占领益州,曹操先下手为强,于次年拿下汉中。汉中在地缘上既是进攻关中陇右之跳板,也是巴蜀之咽喉,无汉中则无蜀。果然,曹操占领汉中后益州人心不稳,“蜀中一日数十惊,守将虽斩之而不能安也”。可惜,曹操没有进一步用主力进攻益州,仅留夏侯渊镇守,张郃入侵巴中。


          刘备(161-223年)

          刘备稳定巩固益州后,于218年苦战夺得汉中。曹操亲率大军来争,但刘备占据汉中险要之地,拒不出战,并派黄忠、赵云截取曹军粮草,曹操只能退兵。占领汉中,同时拥有益州和荆州,刘备集团达到了军事胜利的顶峰。

          试想汉中在曹魏手里,蜀汉会面临什么局面?无需翻越汉中秦岭、巴山、荆山的险关和狭道,曹魏大军可直接攻击益州本土,蜀国边界无险可守,防不胜防。一定程度上,正是因为牢牢控制了汉中地区,蕞尔小国的蜀汉才能维持近半个世纪,并敢于多年进攻曹魏。诸葛亮五次北伐,就是主力坐镇汉中,以之为前线大本营。

          ▍姜维战略调整失策

          姜维是凉州天水人,了解凉州和陇右(位于关中、汉中之西)一带的羌胡风俗。他相信以羌人势力为羽翼,集中蜀汉兵力夺占陇右,进而居高临下虎视关中,可撼动曹魏。相比于汉中,武都和阴平两郡更有利于经略陇右,姜维北伐大多是从这两郡发动。蜀汉军队主力驻扎之地已由汉中转移至武都和阴平。


          蜀汉疆域

          258年,姜维再次调整汉中兵力部署,埋下了蜀国灭亡的祸根。他提出了所谓的“敛兵聚谷”策略:撤销汉中外围的险要据点,收缩兵力,企图诱敌深入,歼之于内。这改变了自刘备以来蜀汉据敌于外的作战模式。实际上,当年曹爽十万大军来攻,蜀军就是凭借汉中险关兴势和黄金等地,阻退曹军。

          姜维新政之下,汉中兵力集中于汉、乐二城,守军各五千人,阳平关守兵两、三千人,加上其他地方少量守兵,总数少于两万,削减的兵力后撤至汉寿(在今四川广元,离汉中不远)。与此同时,姜维在武都和阴平建立七处防守要塞,可见姜维用兵重心仍在陇右地区。

          262年,姜维最后一次北伐失败,回成都复命,诸葛瞻、董厥以及专权的宦官黄皓不满姜维穷兵黩武,欲夺其兵权。姜维畏惧,带领汉寿部分兵力赴阴平郡沓中屯田避祸。这样,汉中地区本就薄弱的兵力又遭削减。


          姜维(202-264年)

          汉中是蜀国的关键要害之地,不宜冒险。姜维偏反其道而行之,放弃地形优势和惯用作战手法,代价太高,敌军轻易可进入汉中腹地,其次汉中守军严重不足,如何阻击入侵之敌?本来汉寿的兵力可以支援汉中,但是姜维屯田沓中后,汉寿之兵恐怕也只能自保。沓中地处偏僻,既容易遭敌人攻击,也与汉中相隔千里,中间山水险阻,一旦局势危急,姜维很难及时赴援。

          ▍钟会快速突破汉中,邓艾灭蜀

          蜀汉后期人才匮乏,曹魏依旧人才济济,比如掌权者司马昭、钟会以及与姜维长期交战的邓艾。姜维如此严重的失误,很快被对手发现。263年司马昭以十八万大军分三路伐蜀。其中钟会十二万进攻汉中,邓艾三万兵力主攻姜维,诸葛绪三万切断姜维后路。


          钟会(225-264年)

          外围未遇抵抗, 钟会大军长驱直入汉中,命两将各以一万军队包围汉、乐二城,二城遂成孤城。钟会前锋部队直抵阳平关,阳平关守将蒋舒投降,傅佥战死。阳平关失守,不但蜀汉储备的大量粮谷物资为曹军所得,而且南下川蜀的通道也被打开。由于姜维冒险错误的兵力部署和战略调整,钟会在一个月内就占领汉中,蜀汉北部最重要的防线崩溃。

          邓艾一路也很快突破武都和阴平,姜维奋力摆脱被邓艾和诸葛绪夹击的险境,但来不及救援汉中,于是与廖化、张翼等援军退守剑阁。至此,除了个别据点,蜀国北境全部沦陷,曹军可经由数条蜀道进攻巴蜀。

          姜维军队四五万人,据险全力防守钟会大军,无暇顾及邓艾一路。邓艾经阴平小道,冒险穿越七百里山高谷深的险地。犹如汉尼拔翻越阿尔卑斯山进入意大利,或者当年马超兵临成都,邓艾部队天降神兵般出现在巴蜀腹地,连克数城,直逼成都。后主刘禅惊恐,在主降派劝诱下投降。从钟会进入汉中到刘禅投降,曹魏亡蜀竟然只花了不到两个月。


          钟会和邓艾伐蜀路线图

          ▍蜀汉亡国的种种原因

          比较一下姜维调整汉中兵力部署的冒险和邓艾的冒险奇袭。姜维的冒险是战略性、牵一发而动全身的,邓艾的冒险是战术性的,结果将是决定性的。邓艾的任务原是攻取武都、阴平,阻击姜维援助汉中,他已经很漂亮地完成任务,而且姜维被钟会牵制,邓艾没有任何负担和后顾之忧,因此这是个值得放手一搏的冒险。


          邓艾(197-264年)

          姜维做了一个风险极高的战略调整后,却不亲自坐镇汉中,或者至少留在汉寿,来指挥军队、掌控局势。他选择了既远离政治漩涡、又远离防守中枢的沓中,连续犯下无可挽回的致命错误,客观上起到了加速蜀汉灭亡的作用。

          姜维继承了诸葛亮“以攻为守”的基本战略,才会重兵经略陇右,有意无意地忽略了汉中防守。但诸葛亮一生谨慎,不敢冒险,也不会犯大错,姜维才不及诸葛亮,又失之鲁莽冒险,终酿大祸。

          以攻为守这个国策本身也很值得商榷。以攻为守用于局部战役、作为战术手段未尝不可,但实力严重不对等的两国长期抗衡,弱国以攻为守无异于自取灭亡。蜀汉国土面积、人口、经济、人才、军事实力都远不及曹魏。诸葛亮为不负刘备之托兴复汉室,明知不能成功,却长期在崎岖险峻之地徒劳兵民,他“鞠躬尽瘁、死而后已”,将蜀汉带上了一条不归路。


          诸葛亮(181-234年)

          蒋琬、费祎及时改变策略,休养生息,据险待敌。可惜,作为诸葛亮的军事接班人,姜维不假思索地接受了前者的错误战略,继续无谓地耗损蜀汉国力。即使没有削弱汉中防守和沓中避祸,蜀国也未必能存续很久。不过,把亡国责任都归于姜维、甚至诸葛亮,是很不公平的。邓艾还没有围攻成都,刘禅就决定投降,力劝刘禅投降的是光禄大夫谯周。此时,蜀国尚有近十万可战之兵。

          外来势力刘备、诸葛亮夺取益州后,益州本土豪族士人虽有人获重用,但总体上和蜀汉政权高层矛盾很深,屡遭打压。蒋琬和费祎死后,益州本土势力反弹,名士谯周就是其中代表人物。

          谯周虽在蜀汉做官,但对蜀汉并无感情,他竟然公开宣扬蜀汉传二代就要亡国的谶语。腐败昏聩的刘禅政权对这种反蜀言论竟没有任何反应,继续任用谯周。饱受打击的益州土著豪族则聚族自保、坐山观虎斗,不肯为国效力,邓艾才能轻易攻城略地。

          宦官黄皓对蜀汉亡国也负有一定责任,首先是逼迫姜维远赴沓中。其次,司马昭伐蜀前,魏国的人事调动就令姜维敏锐地察觉到危险。他上表刘禅,主张派遣张翼、廖化分别驻守阳平关和阴平桥头,加强防范。但刘禅听信黄皓谗言,未予理睬,错失机会。
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